There was good news last winter when it was reported that the number of Monarchs roosting in Mexico had more than doubled from the year before. And at the end of February they published this report: http://www.learner.org/jnorth/monarch/spring2016/05/monarch-butterfly-population-size.html

Migrating Monarch - September 2015     Lincoln, MA

Everyone was hopeful that, as a result, this year's 2016 wintering population would be even larger.  Then on March 11th a disastrous winter storm hit: http://www.learner.org/jnorth/monarch/spring2016/08/monarch-butterfly-migration031116.html   It's estimated that survival was only about 50%.  The surviving monarchs have begun their migration and many are now in Texas where they will lay eggs on milkweed, and the next generation will continue the move northward.

Winter storms kill lots of butterflies.  Illegal logging in their roosting habitat creates even more fatalities.  Loggers go inside the forest (when the Monarchs aren't there) to avoid detection and cut trees from within leaving a gaping hole surrounded by uncut trees where roosting butterflies, once protected by the neighboring trees, will be left exposed to ice and snow that will fall directly into the space where trees once stood.  Continued updates here:  http://www.learner.org/jnorth/monarch/News.html

Migrating Monarch - September 2015     Lincoln, MA